Inflated Expectations, Part 2
What is inflation, anyway?
I recently wrote about some of this, but I want to articulate it again and I have a couple of new examples. I’ve been writing about inflation and consumer issues here from time to time for awhile, and one of the things I’ve been musing on is the idea that people’s definition of “inflation” isn’t just price increases; it’s also anything that makes it feel like the standard of living is declining. The pandemic period was full of things like that, and I think one reason inflation is so salient is because it spooks people. It’s almost scarier because it isn’t actually an acute crisis—it’s more like a taste of how bad things could get that looms over you.
There are also lots of things that have less, or nothing, to do with inflation, but which fit into that “things are getting worse” narrative that can start to form in your head. I have two little recent examples.
One, we’re looking for a new ceiling fan with lights, and we’re finding something odd; most of the cheap ones have a supposed wattage limit of 6.5 watts on the light fixtures. Not 65; 6.5. In other words, you can put some small 60-watt equivalent LEDs in there, but not, say, a 100-watt equivalent. (Or maybe you can and it would be fine; one fellow on Reddit thinks the fixtures are the same as before and the limit is just to get you to save energy. I’m not sure I’d risk an electrical fire to find out.)
Why? Why has all our material progress resulted in ceiling fans with cheap little light sockets that can’t accept a 10-watt bulb? What was the point of making lighting so cheap and abundant if the fixtures are designed downward to not be able to use most of the lightbulbs?
The other thing is another why? moment. Just a gripe, but the kind of thing that adds up. I was using the Yelp app the other day and I wanted to copy down something from a review. And I found that when you’re in the app, you can’t copy and paste text. Why? Why does the app on an amazing little computer in your pocket do less than the website on a desktop or laptop? Another one: why doesn’t Amazon let you keyword search reviews on their mobile site? (Or if they do, they really make it hard to find.)
Another example I like to use is restaurants increasingly separating fries from burgers and making them a separate order. The big question is something like, if we’re in such a strong economy and everything is so good, why does it feel like we’re always being squeezed a little more?
Some of this sort of thing is inflation in the sense of companies cutting corners, I guess. Some of it has nothing to do with the economy per se. But there are a lot of these little frustrations, and enough of them, amid a strong but recovering economy, will create a mental narrative that may not be strictly speaking accurate. But it is definitely understandable.
Is this mental perception real, or are people just wrong? Are there better examples of ways in which the standard of living has deteriorated even while the economy is doing pretty well? Leave a comment!
Related Reading:
The “Vibecession” Was (And Is) Real, But It’s Not About The Economy
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I think there are two things going on here:
1) People were accustomed to low, almost imperceptible price increases for a couple of decades, and the massive inflation in 2021-23 still hurts. (I for one still notice it)
2) The cost of rent, mortgage borrowing, and home prices has exploded *even relative to everything else* - which selectively crucifies the younger and working-class folks who shifted so heavily to Trump in the recent election. The CPI doesn't capture this dynamic well, averaging out the effect across the entire population. In reality, that population includes millions of people with locked-in 2% mortgages who have enjoyed skyrocketing home equity, but also millions who have watched monthly mortgage payments double or triple out of reach in just a few years, or who are spending 50% of their income on rents which, until very recently, have been galloping ahead by 10% per year.
Ensh*ttification. We bought 4 water kettles in 4 years, all of which broke in different ways through normal use. Different brands, styles and price-points, none of them super cheap. One worked fine except a tiny plastic mesh filter in the spout broke, which caused auto shut-off to stop working. I scoured the web and emailed the manufacturer, but it was not possible to purchase that filter, which looked like it would have cost about 25 cents to manufacture. The whole $100 kettle with all its stainless steel and glass and electric components went into the landfill.
As for your burgers and fries complaint, I've noticed something further: a side of fries in many otherwise cheap restaurants and pubs is now ludicrously expensive. Like $12, when a burger is, say, $15. I've noticed that this is true of almost all appetizers now: they are nearly the same price as the mains. Back in pre-ensh*ttification times you could meet a friend for a pint in the pub and maybe just order some fries or something to snack on for $4 or $5 if you weren't in the mood for a meal. Now, if you want any food you have little choice but to order a full meal. They don't want snackers hogging tables.